🕓 — Between theory and practice : exponential

Expressed the 22th June 2024

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This note is written to make you realize the disparities between theory and practice about exponential effects, showing it with the Kessler Syndrom.

The Kessler Syndrome is a nightmarish space scenario in which the number of satellites and orbital debris is so high that collisions occur, each one generating more and more space debris and, in turn, creating a cascade of collisions in a exponential curve.

➠ Concretely :

Let's say you use a metric to evaluate the risk of a Kessler Syndrom. Let's say the certitude you have with this metric exceed 50% and dangerously tend toward 100% in a day. 

Then, from a theoretical point of view Kessler Syndrom have begun and there's no way back : satellites will be lost as well as communications.

However, within the continuum of this exponential quantity of space collisions — called Kessler Syndrom — lies also another form of effect like an exponential quantity of debris falling into deep-space or toward Earth, disappearing in an atmospheric combustion. This opposite effects exist in probabilistic minority but should not be excluded from considerations. 

So a falling cascade is possible too. 

Meaning that from the point of view of your metric, your index might be close to 100% day one for a Kessler Syndrom, but could be falling back to 10% the day after due to this opposite exponential effect taking place.